The economy has performed reasonably well since the referendum. We were more sanguine about the economic prospects following a ‘leave’ win, but the economy has, if anything, performed slightly better than we were expecting.
Looking at the prospects for the Brexit deal, while the negotiations have been tetchy so far, there do seem to be grounds for a compromise. The UK’s ultimate destination currently looks likely to be that of a third country with which the EU has an enhanced free trade agreement.
However, Britain is likely to wish to maintain many of its existing single-market and customs-union privileges for a period and it has indicated that it is willing to pay for this. Given that the British bill is one of the primary issues for the EU side, it does seem that the scope exists for a compromise.
If, for whatever reason, that doesn’t happen, then the most likely outcome is Brexit without a deal, though the UK opting to remain in the European Economic Area and the EU’s customs union would also be possible in that circumstance.
In this section, we assess how the economy has performed since the referendum on EU membership and assess what we know of the likely eventual form of Brexit – considering the key issues of the negotiations and setting out, with evidence, our expectations regarding the final settlement.
The economy since the referendum
Since the ‘leave’ vote, the economy has continued to expand at the same pace seen before the referendum – a rate of around 1.7% per annum, which is the same as in the four quarters prior to mid-2016. (See Figure 1.) As a result, the economy has been more resilient than many forecasters expected it to be in the case of a ‘leave’ vote. (See Figure 2).
Figure 1: UK real GDP
Source: Capital Economics, Thomson Reuters
Note: Dashed data represents post-EU referendum quarter-on-quarter change in UK real GDP
There are various explanations for the economy’s overall resilience.
First, some forecasters genuinely saw a vote for Brexit as an adverse external shock akin to the Lehman crisis, with similar potential effects on consumer and business sentiment and financial markets. But that was never likely, given that it was something that was favoured by over half of voters, that the scale of the potential impacts was not very large and that those impacts would, in any case, be delayed for two years whilst an exit deal is negotiated.
Figure 2: Real GDP growth and forecasts for real GDP growth in the case of a leave vote
Source: Capital Economics, Thomson Reuters, International Monetary Fund, HM Treasury
Note: Dashed data represents projected real UK GDP growth for 2017, assuming that growth rates in Q3 and Q4 match that of Q2 (0.3%).
Second, the potential changes in Britain’s trading relationship with Europe are simply not of sufficient magnitude to cause such a shift in output and, what is more, the effects were always likely to be significantly delayed by the two-year withdrawal process, which was well known at the time.
Third, policymakers responded to the outcome. Monetary policy was loosened via interest rates being lowered from 0.50% to 0.25% in August 2016 and an increase in asset purchases.1 Furthermore, the Chancellor announced a slowdown in the planned pace of fiscal tightening in November 2016 such that the government would not need to balance its books by the end of the decade as previously set out.2
Fourth, the drop in the pound has acted as an effective shock absorber, helping to boost the stock market and increase the competitiveness of exporters. (See Figure 3.)
Nevertheless, sterling’s depreciation following the ‘leave’ vote has contributed to inflation outpacing nominal pay growth again. This is causing a squeeze on consumers’ real income, though the experience has been worse in many recent years. (See Figure 4.)
Figure 3: UK export surveys and sterling Trade Weighted Index (TWI)
Source: Capital Economics, Thomson Reuters
Figure 4: UK average earnings and consumer price index (CPI)
Source: Capital Economics, Thomson Reuters
The rate of jobs growth did appear to lose steam after the referendum, slowing to around 1% per annum over the second half of 2016. This may reflect the tightness of the labour market by historical standards, rather than being a result of the ‘leave’ vote. Employment as a proportion of the population over 16 is at its highest level since the 1970s. The unemployment rate has now fallen below the Monetary Policy Committee’s ‘equilibrium rate’ of 4.5%.3 Business investment weakened in advance of the referendum, but there have been no large falls subsequently. Investment appears to have proved resilient to uncertainty, perhaps due to credit conditions remaining supportive. Surveys of firms’ investment intentions have also held up well and point to an acceleration in annual growth of real business investment. (See Figure 5.)
Figure 5: Real business investment growth rate and investment intentions
Source: Capital Economics, Thomson Reuters, IHS Markit
In summary, over the last year, the economy has performed at near the levels it has performed at since the financial crisis. There may have been a modest post-referendum slowdown driven by higher inflation in the first half of 2017, but there are encouraging signs that even that will prove temporary. Certainly, forecasts of a post-referendum recession proved unfounded. (See Figure 1.)
The potential Brexit deal
The EU negotiating position is that there are three key issues that must be cleared up initially:
The rights of EU citizens living in the UK, and UK citizens living in the EU
Agreeing a methodology for calculating the so-called ‘exit bill’
Solutions to try to avoid the imposition of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland
The British view is that these three issues – and particularly that of the Northern Ireland border – are intimately linked with the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU.
Brussels expects the UK to make a contribution towards the union’s outstanding financial commitments, which would limit any disruption to its programmes from Brexit. Britain will likely have to agree to this ‘divorce bill’ to secure a new trading agreement with the EU, even though the legal obligation on the UK to do so is debatable. The EU’s case for an exit bill is primarily dependent on the union having entered into various financial commitments on the basis of continued British contributions in the current EU budget framework – multiannual financial framework – for 2014-2020.
The UK is seeking to preserve certain aspects of membership at least for a temporary period. Britain has indicated that it is open to contributions to the EU to pay for these privileges. The ground does therefore seem to exist for a potential compromise involving British payments in exchange for certain single-market or customs-union benefits for a limited period, paving the way for an eventual free trade arrangement (though this may not be concluded before March 2019). Continued British contributions for transitionary privileges would therefore be:
A way for the UK to pay for its temporary privileges
A way for the EU to plug the hole in its current budget
A way to remove many of the notional liabilities – from the 2014-2020 multiannual financial framework – in the exit bill
The third party in the configuration of the final deal is the British Parliament, which now has much more influence after the 2017 general election result. If the opposition parties were able to unite on a particular issue then, together with Conservative rebels, they might be able to force the government to change tack.
At present, however, that looks unlikely, especially for any of the key ‘red line’ issues. After all, Labour still appears quite uncertain of its own position. What’s more, few Conservative MPs actually rebelled on the legislation enabling Article 50 in spite of much speculation beforehand, while there are a small number of committed pro-Brexit Labour MPs who have and could end up voting with the government – as they did at the Second Reading of the Withdrawal Bill. Overall, while amendments to forthcoming Brexit bills are likely, it still looks difficult for Parliament to force the government to make a major change in stance.
As a result, the timetable and key developments at this stage seem likely to be as follows:
Negotiations continue for the next year and reach a conclusion in autumn 2018
Parliamentary ratifications of the deal (EU and UK) take place over the following few months
Britain leaves the EU, including the single market and customs union, on 29 March 2019
Britain retains many of features of membership during a transitionary period, which runs to end of current EU budget framework, which is the end of 2020
During transition, Britain continues to make normal contributions to the union. Retained features are likely to include customs privileges and significant single-market rights
From the beginning of 2021, the UK enters new relationship with EU based on an extensive free trade agreement
Figure 6: Possible Brexit timetable
Source: Capital Economics
Specific events
2017
Q4
Talks progress to future trade arrangements?
2018
Q1
Italian election
Q2
Terms of withdrawal finalised
Q3
UK Parliament votes on draft final agreement
Q4
Ratification by European, UK & European National Parliaments
2019
Q2
UK starts to formally negotiate non-EU trade agreements
The other options
If this Brexit ‘compromise deal’ scenario does not transpire, what are the other likely scenarios? Table 1 provides an overview of EU relationships with non-member countries.
Table 1: Options for Britain’s relationship with the EU
Source: Capital Economics, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, various others
UK’s current position
EEA (Norway)
EFTA & Bilateral deal (Swiss)
Customs Union (Turkey)
Free Trade Deal (Canada)
WTO Rules Only
Restrictions on exports to EU
None
On some agricultural and fish products
On some agricultural products
On services, public goods and agricultural products
On some agricultural products, manufactured goods
Average tariff of 4.4%
Acceptance of EU laws
Accepts EU laws
Significant acceptance of EU regulations
Opt-in to EU regulations
Exports to EU have to conform with EU standards
Exports to EU have to conform with EU standards
Exports to EU have to conform with EU standards
Financial passporting
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
No
EU budget contributions
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
No
Free movement of labour
Yes
Yes
Yes, with exceptions
No
No
No
Reach-own free trade agreements
No
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Yes
Broadly, the alternative options fall under two overarching categories:
Leaving without a deal or a minimalist deal that includes little on trade. This is probably the second most likely outcome. The parties could fail to reach an agreement or an agreement may be thrown out by either side at the parliamentary ratification stage. With this option, it’s also likely that the British side will not make an exit payment. We explore what this means for the economy later in this report.
Britain becomes more worried about the consequences of Brexit and consents to a more diluted form. This could involve remaining within the single market or customs union, or agreeing to terms that are close to membership of these arrangements, for the long term. This would likely not involve major economic changes from the status quo. Such a change in stance would likely be welcomed by the EU as it would probably involve the use of an off-the-shelf model (Norwegian, Swiss or Turkish) which may make the negotiations easier.
It is, of course, also possible that Britain will, in spite of everything, somehow remain a member of the EU. However, given the political hurdles to this, the probability of it occurring is very low. Still, nothing is inevitable until it has happened.
Bank of England monetary policy summary, ‘Bank of England cuts bank rate to 0.25% and introduces a package of measures designed to provide additional monetary stimulus’, Bank of England, August 2016.
HM Treasury, Autumn Statement 2016, 2016.
Office for National Statistics, Labour Market Statistics time series dataset, September 2017.
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At Woodford1 we are committed to safeguarding and preserving your privacy.
This Privacy and Cookies Policy (together with the website Terms and Conditions) explains what happens to any personal data that you provide to us, or that we may learn about you while you visit our websites2, attend Woodford events, visit our offices, use our services or invest in one of the funds discretionary managed by us. This notice also informs you about your privacy rights and how the law may protect you.
We update this Policy from time to time, so please do review it regularly.
Please read the following carefully to understand our views and practices regarding your personal data and how we will treat it.
How and from where we may receive personal data
From you
When you contact or correspond with us (for example, by phone (including during recorded calls), e-mail or otherwise) for any other reason (for example, to request services from us);
When you use our Website, post comments on our Website or via social media;
When you report a problem with the Website;
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Data from other sources
Like many other businesses, we may receive personal data from many sources. This section seeks to list various places from where we may receive personal data about you.
Data we indirectly gather about you:
When you use the Website, details of your usage (including the date, time, location or duration of the usage);
If you visit the Website, certain technical information, for example, the type of device (and its unique device identifier) you use to access the Website, the Internet protocol (IP) address used to connect your device to the Internet, your login information, browser type and version, time zone setting, browser plug-in types and versions, operating system, mobile network information and platform; and
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Data we may receive from third parties
Companies that introduce you to us (such as financial advisers)
Financial advisers
Investment platforms through which you access our clients (investment companies and funds)
Investment fund administrators or shareholder/unitholder registrars
Social networks (e.g. google, twitter – see below for further details and our cookies policy below)
Public information sources such as Companies House or the Financial Conduct Authority’s Register
Market researchers/Data providers who collect and provide personal data from many sources for the specific and approved purpose of sharing such data with businesses like ours to help with our internal analysis (including assessing market trends, fund distributions statistics etc).
Marketing partners engaged to help distribute content on us and our services through any medium
Agents, consultants and advisers. These can be specialist companies who advise us on ways to develop and improve our services and products. These can also be types of firms that help us to prevent, detect and reports unlawful acts and fraudulent behaviours, in particular with regards to financial crime.
Government and law enforcement agencies
Purpose and legal basis for processing your data
Purpose of processing
Type of personal data
Legal basis for processing
To enable us to check your identity
Name, address, date of birth, passport details, driving license details and any other information you may provide us with
Legal obligation
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Name, address, date of birth, passport details, driving license details and any other information you may provide us with
Legal obligation
To deal with any enquiries, correspondence, concerns or complaints you have raised
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To process any relevant payments
Bank, credit or debit card details
Performance of a contract with you
To enable us to process a referral from a third party (for example, a financial adviser)
Name, address, telephone number, email address, details of the referral and details of the third party making the referral
Legitimate interests – to enable us to process the referral
To compile internal reports and statistics of usage of the Website and our products and services
Name, details of any products or services purchased and the technical information mentioned above
Legitimate interests – to enable us to develop and manage our brands, products and services
To process your registration made via our Website to enable you (whilst acting on behalf of your company) to access the Woodford services
Your name, email address and company details (if applicable)
Legitimate interests – to enable us to provide you (where you have registered on behalf of your company) with Woodford online services
To send you our news items, marketing materials, product information, blog posts, insights and articles via email
Your name and email address
Legitimate interests – to enable us to communicate with business contacts
or
Consent – where we contact you in your personal capacity, for example where you are a user of our Website
To provide you with information, products or services that you request from us or which we feel may interest you
Your name and email address
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or
Consent – where we contact you in your personal capacity, for example where you are a user of our Website
To assess how people use our products and services
Technical information as mentioned above
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Technical information as mentioned above
Legitimate interests – to enable us to improve our products and services
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Technical information as mentioned above
Legitimate interests – to enable us to improve our products and services
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Your name, contact details, details of the post you wish to make and technical information as mentioned above
Legitimate interests – to review your request
To invite you to Woodford events
Your name, email address and details of the event
Legitimate interests – to allow us to obtain attendees for Woodford events
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Your name, email address, details of the event and any applicable dietary requirements (including relevant medical information)
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To enable us to comply with our health and safety obligations when hosting an event (such as fire marshal duties)
Your name and details of the event you are attending
Legal obligation
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Legitimate interests
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Your Twitter handle (or other relevant social media handle), the IP address associated with you (if relevant) and details of your response to the poll
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To receive feedback on our corporate governance and performance, including any views of investors in the funds that we manage
Your name, email address, telephone number and details of the feedback provided
Legitimate interests – collecting and analysing feedback on our performance and the performance of funds that we manage
To personalise the content you may see from us online (either on our Website or the websites of our online partners) if you have agreed to targeted advertising cookies
Your IP address and your consent to the use of targeted advertising cookies
Consent
To share your details (where you are an independent financial adviser business contact) with suppliers who carry out market analysis and information relating to IFAs, to enable them to take you into account in their research and analysis
Your name
Legitimate interest of the supplier – to carry out research and analysis on IFA market activity and publish information a directory of such activity – we would contractually require suppliers to whom we provide data to comply with data protection laws in their use of that data
Where we have a legal basis to use your personal data without consent (as we have described above), this Privacy and Cookies Policy fulfils our duty to process personal data fairly and lawfully and in a manner that you would expect given the nature of our relationship with you, by giving you appropriate notice and explanation of the way in which your personal data will be used.
Where consent is required for our use of your personal data as described above, we will request your consent. Typically, we would collect your consent by you performing an action such as ticking the appropriate consent box or otherwise communicating your consent to us (for example, by email or by you providing us with non mandatory information), you consent to our use of that personal data as set out in this policy.
You can always change your mind about our processing of your personal data. If you change your mind you can contact us by email at info@woodfordfunds.com, or in respect of marketing messages you can unsubscribe by using the unsubscribe link at the bottom of our marketing messages.
Cookie policy
Like most other websites, our website uses cookies. Cookies are small text files stored on your computer or mobile device by your browser. Cookies can be used to store certain preferences on a website or track if you have visited that site before.
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Names
Phone numbers
Email addresses
Mailing addresses
Financial data
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For more detailed information about cookies and how they can be managed and deleted, please visit www.allaboutcookies.org.
Retaining personal data
We will retain the personal data we receive or collect about you for the period reasonably required for us to use it in accordance with this Privacy and Cookies Policy or in accordance with our legal rights and obligations. To determine the appropriate retention period for personal data, we consider the amount, nature, and sensitivity of the personal data, the potential risk of harm from unauthorised use or disclosure of your personal data, the purposes for which we process your personal data and whether we can achieve those purposes through other means, and the applicable legal requirements.
Your rights
You have the following rights with regard to your personal data:
Access: You have the right to access data we hold about you. This enables you to receive a copy of the personal data we hold about you and to check that we are lawfully processing it.
Rectification or erasure: You have the right to request that we rectify or delete any personal data that we hold about you (unless we have the legal right to retain it). If you request that we erase any personal data that we require in order to provide our products and services to you, you may no longer be able to use it. This right does not extend to non-personal data. It is likely to be necessary for us to retain your personal data to enable us to carry out a contract with you, and your rights under applicable law to request erasure may be limited accordingly. This means your rights under applicable law to request erasure may be limited accordingly.
Data portability: You have the right to obtain personal data we hold about you, in a structured, electronic format, and to transmit such data to another data controller if the legal basis for processing such personal data is consent or on the basis of performance of a contract.
Restriction: You also have the right to restrict us from processing your personal data if the data is inaccurate, the processing is unlawful or we no longer need to your personal data for the purposes for which we hold it.
Object / Change of preferences: You have a right to request that we stop processing your personal data where we are relying on a legitimate interest (or those of a third party). You also have the right to object where we are processing your personal information for direct marketing purposes. For example, if you have given your consent to receive updates from us about new products or services, but have changed your mind, you have the ability to opt out from receiving such communications going forward by contacting us using the details provided below or clicking the relevant link in any communications you receive. Please note, if you submit a request for us to stop processing your personal data in a certain way and this type of processing is required in order to provide you with our products and services, you will no longer be able to use our products and services following your request for us to stop the relevant processing.
Complaints: If for any reason you are not happy with the way that we have handled your personal data, please contact us. If you are still not happy, you have the right to make a complaint to the Information Commissioner’s Office.
Please note that if you ask us to stop processing your personal data in a certain way or erase your personal data, and this type of processing or data is needed to facilitate your use of any of our products or services you may not be able to use them as you did before. This does not include your right to object to direct marketing, which can be exercised at any time without restriction. Please allow at least 5 working days for your request to be actioned.
Please note that the rights mentioned above do not extend to non-personal data. Please also note that it is likely to be necessary to retain your personal data for the purposes of assessing and verifying data that is submitted by you and to manage our products and services, so therefore your rights under applicable law to request erasure may be limited accordingly.
If you would like to exercise any of the rights mentioned above, please contact us at info@woodfordfunds.com.
Disclosure of your personal data
investment funds/trust or companies (including their agents or service providers) discretionary managed by us, such as the LF Woodford Equity Investment Fund;
other companies in the Woodford Group and their agents;
service providers (for example, IT services), business partners, suppliers and sub-contractors for the performance of any contract we enter into with you, and for processing of our data on the basis of our legitimate interest (as we have explained in this policy) including providing you with marketing communications or developing and tailoring products. Such service providers may help us to update your records, carry out marketing fulfilment services (such as distributing our materials and reports) and help us analyse data for our own internal purposes;
analytics, market researchers, data partners and search engine providers that assist us in the improvement and optimisation of the Website, our services, our products and their distribution;
government or other law enforcement agencies, in connection with the investigation of unlawful activities or for other legal reasons (this may include your location information);
in the event that we sell any business or assets or receive investment into our business, in which case we may disclose your personal data to the prospective buyer or investor;
if we or substantially all of our assets are acquired by a third party, in which case personal data held by us, including your personal data, will be one of the transferred assets; and
if we are under a duty to disclose or share your personal data in order to comply with any legal obligation, or in order to enforce or apply the Terms and Conditions for our website or any other contract between you and us;
or to protect the rights, property or safety of Woodford, our users, and others.
Storing your personal data and transferring data outside of the EEA
In operating our website and our services it may become necessary to transfer data that we collect from you to locations outside of the European Economic Area (EEA), such as the US and Australia, for processing and storing. By providing your personal data to us, you agree to this transfer, processing or storing. This may involve the transfer of data by electronic media, including the internet.
There is no adequacy decision by the European Commission in respect of the US or Australia which means that the laws of these countries are not deemed to provide an adequate level of protection to your personal data. However, to ensure that your personal data receives an adequate level of protection we may implement any mechanism that is approved under data protection laws to ensure that your personal data is treated by those third parties in a way that is consistent with EU and UK laws on data protection. These measures could include the following:
EU-US Privacy Shield; and/ or
EU standard contractual clauses.
If you would like to find out more about this or obtain a copy of the relevant standard contractual clauses, please contact us at info@woodfordfunds.com.
Our Website can also be accessed and used worldwide, which means your data may be processed outside the EEA. Please note that the country from which you are accessing personal data may not provide an adequate level of protection for your personal data.
Security
All information you provide to us is stored on secure severs. We will use appropriate technical and organisational measures to safeguard your personal data.
Where we have given you (or where you have chosen) a password, you are responsible for keeping this password confidential. We ask you not to share your password with anyone.
We maintain (and ensure that anyone we share your personal data with maintains) appropriate technical and organisational measures to ensure that an appropriate level of security in respect of all personal data we process. Unfortunately the transmission of information via the Internet is not completely secure. Although we will do our best to protect your personal data, we cannot guarantee the security of your data transmitted via the website or any of our services; any transmission is at your own risk. Once we have received your personal data, we will use strict procedures and security features to try to prevent unauthorised access or inadvertent disclosure.
Third party links
On occasion we include links to third parties on this website. Where we provide a link, we are not responsible for the collection or use of your personal data from these third party websites. You should review their privacy policy before sending them any personal data.
Letting us know if your information is incorrect
If any of the information which we hold about you is incorrect, please tell us and we will amend it. You can write to us at Woodford Investment Management Ltd, 9400 Garsington Rd, Oxford, OX4 2HN or email us at info@woodfordfunds.com.
How to complain
This section tells you how you can contact us to complain about our data privacy processes and how you can contact appropriate government regulators.
Please let us know if you are unhappy with how we have used your personal data. You can contact us using info@woodfordfunds.com.
You also have the right to complain to the regulator, and to lodge an appeal if you are not happy with the outcome of a complaint.
In the UK this is the Information Commissioner’s Office. Find out on their website how to report a concern.
How to withdraw your consent and implication of not providing personal data
This section explains what to do if you no longer want us to hold or use your personal data. This section also explains the effects of not choosing to provide personal data.
Withdraw consent
You can withdraw your consent at any time. Please contact us at info@woodfordfunds.com if you want to do so.
This will only affect the way we use information when our reason for doing so is that we have your consent.
If you withdraw your consent or do not provide minimum personal data (like contact details), we may not be able to
provide information on certain products or services to you;
keep you informed on our business developments;
contact you regarding your desire to post on our website; or
report back to you on the status of any complaints you have made.
Contacting us
Please contact us if you have any questions relating to this Privacy and Cookies Policy at info@woodfordfunds.com.
Footnotes
Woodford Investment Management Ltd (company number 10118169) and referred to as “Woodford”/”we”/”our”/”us” in this privacy policy.
Including https://woodfordfunds.com/ (the “Website”)