The extraordinary dividend

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Neil Woodford 24 March 2017 Est. reading: 6 min read

The dividend is often called the ordinary dividend, but there is nothing ordinary about it. There is no other piece of information that a company can give to investors, which could more accurately reflect what that business really thinks about its current state of health.

Principally, this is because companies find it very hard to cut their dividends. It is the walk of shame for any board and executive management to cut the dividend – it is a last resort, and rightly so. By contrast, companies that choose to sustain and grow their dividends, are doing so in the knowledge that they are creating a bigger burden for the future – they need to be confident in the sustainability of the business and its future growth prospects, in order to do so.

This does introduce a problem too, however. The difficulty that boards and management teams have with dividend cuts, can lead to some ambiguous behaviour. Sometimes companies will go to great lengths to avoid a dividend cut and this simply stores up trouble for the future. This is where judgement comes into my investment process – I have to make judgements about the sustainability of a company’s dividend which may be at odds with what a management team is saying.

Within the UK stock market, examples of this can currently be found in the oil & gas sector. I believe that both BP and Royal Dutch Shell have unsustainable dividends that are being financed by a combination of debt and asset disposal. In effect, these companies are liquidating themselves rather than facing up to the need for a dividend cut. The only thing that can save them from that eventuality, in my opinion, is a return to sustainably higher oil prices – something that I think is very unlikely to happen. In short therefore, although I know this is a contrarian view because these are widely held shares, particularly by income funds, the oil majors are an unattractive investment proposition while the threat of a dividend cut hangs over them.

Instead, my focus (for the Equity Income Fund and the new Income Focus Fund) is on identifying businesses that are attractively valued and capable of delivering sustainable dividend growth in the years ahead.

There is a simple reason for that focus, which is clearly evident in the chart below. Reinvested dividends have formed a very significant part of the long-term return delivered by equities.

Reinvested dividends provide a powerful boost to long-term equity total returns

With dividends reinvested, £1,000 in 1926 would have grown to £7.8m by 2017

Source: Morgan Stanley, Woodford. Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance.

Here we can see the performance of the FTSE All Share index since 1926, in capital terms and in total return terms. Over nine decades, an investor’s capital has appreciated at a compound annual growth rate of 5.4% – this is an attractive growth rate in itself but, with dividends reinvested, the total return from UK equities compounds at an annual growth rate of 10.4%.

This is a product of what Einstein observed to be the 8th wonder of the world – compound interest!

Of course, part of this return can be explained by inflation and, at times, over the last 90 years there’s been a lot of inflation around. But that also highlights one of the other important things that makes equities, and the dividend in particular, special. Equities are real assets – they are stakes in real companies, operating in the real economy, which generate revenues, profits and cash flows that can rise with inflation. With those cash flows, companies pay their dividends which also tend to rise with inflation. Investing in equities therefore comes with an in-built inflation advantage which very few other asset classes can match. Cash and fixed-interest investments are nominal asset classes – they cannot protect an investor from the erosive impact of inflation.

The dividend has always been important to me as an investor and it always will be. The dividend isn’t ordinary – if anything it is extraordinary. And by selecting the most attractive and sustainable dividends, I aim to deliver extraordinary long-term returns to investors.

Find out more about the new CF Woodford Income Focus Fund

What are the risks?

  • The value of investments and any income from them may go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invested
  • Past performance cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance
  • The ongoing charges figure is charged to capital, so the income of the funds may be higher but capital growth may be restricted or capital may be eroded
  • The funds may invest in other transferable securities, money market instruments, warrants, collective investment schemes and deposits – some of these security types could increase the funds’ volatility and increase the level of indirect charges to which the funds are exposed
  • The funds and trust may invest in overseas securities and be exposed to currencies other than pound sterling – as a result, exchange rate movements may cause the sterling value of these investments and the income from them, to fluctuate
  • The LF Woodford Income Focus Fund will be invested in a concentrated portfolio of securities – the fund is not restricted by reference to any geographical region, sector or market capitalisation
  • The LF Woodford Equity Income Fund and the Woodford Patient Capital Trust may invest in unquoted securities, which may be less liquid and more difficult to value, because they are generally not publicly traded – the lack of an open market may also make it more difficult to establish fair value
  • The price of shares in the Woodford Patient Capital Trust is determined by market supply and demand, and this may be different to the net asset value of the trust. This means the price may be volatile in response to changes in demand
  • Long-term outcomes are more binary – extremely attractive rewards for success but some businesses will inevitably fail to fulfil their potential and this may expose investors to the risk of capital losses
  • Young businesses have a different risk profile to mature blue-chip companies – risks are much more stock-specific, which implies a lower correlation with equity markets and the wider economy – it can take years for young businesses to fulfil their potential, this investment requires patience

Important information

Before investing, you should read the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) for the fund – or Key Information Document (KID) for the trust – and the Prospectus which, along with our terms and conditions, can be obtained from the downloads page or from our registered office. If you have a financial adviser, you should seek their advice before investing. Woodford Investment Management Ltd is not authorised to provide investment advice.

The Woodford Patient Capital Trust currently intends to conduct its affairs so that its securities can be recommended by IFAs to ordinary retail investors in accordance with the FCA’s rules in relation to non-mainstream investment products and intends to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The securities are excluded from the FCA’s restrictions which apply to non-mainstream investment products because they are shares in an investment trust.

The Woodford Funds (Ireland) ICAV (the “Fund”) has appointed as Swiss Representative Oligo Swiss Fund Services SA, Av. Villamont 17, 1005 Lausanne, Switzerland. The Fund’s Swiss paying agent is Neue Helvetische Bank AG. All fund documentation including, Prospectus, Key Investor Information Documents, Instrument of Incorporation and financial reports may be obtained free of charge from the Swiss Representative in Lausanne. The place of performance and jurisdiction for all shares distributed in or from Switzerland is at the registered office of the Swiss Representative. Fund prices can be found at www.fundinfo.com.

 

Woodford Investment Management Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (firm reference number 745433). Incorporated in England and Wales, company number 10118169. Registered address 9400 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2HN.

Woodford Patient Capital Trust plc is incorporated in England and Wales, company number 09405653. Registered as an investment company under section 833 of the Companies Act 2006. Registered address Beaufort House, 51 New North Road, Exeter, EX4 4EP.

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